US inflation still running hot, key PCE price gauge shows

US inflation still running hot, key PCE price gauge shows

The numbers: A key gauge of US inflation rose a mild 0.3% in September, aided by the lower cost of gas. Yet prices are still going up even if they aren’t climbing as fast as they were earlier in the year. Another measure of inflation that omits volatile food and energy costs rose a sharp … Read more

Why the housing market should brace for double-digit mortgage rates in 2023

Why the housing market should brace for double-digit mortgage rates in 2023

Even if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his cohorts stopped hiking policy rates soon, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate still would climb to 10%, according to Christopher Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors. That’s because the Fed’s torrid pace of rate increases in 2022 takes time to seep back into mortgage rates, especially with … Read more

Opinion: The stock market is in trouble. That’s because the bond market is ‘very close to a crash.’

Opinion: The stock market is in trouble.  That’s because the bond market is ‘very close to a crash.’

Don’t assume the worst is over, says investor Larry McDonald. There’s talk of a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve as interest rates rise quickly and stocks keep falling. Both may continue. McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense,” which described the 2008 failure of Lehman … Read more

Why stock-market investors keep falling for Fed ‘pivot’ talk — and what it will take to put in a bottom

Why stock-market investors keep falling for Fed ‘pivot’ talk — and what it will take to put in a bottom

Timing the market has been a nagging question for investors ever since stocks began their decline by roughly 25% in January of this year. The right answer likely hinges on whether or not the Federal Reserve follows through with plans to raise its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% or higher, as market-based indicators and the … Read more

US stocks gain ground as investors await August inflation reading

US stocks gain ground as investors await August inflation reading

US stocks rose early Monday, on track for a fourth consecutive day of gains, as traders look ahead to inflation data later in the week. How are stocks trading The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.85% rose 127 points, gold 0.4%, to 32,278. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.96% was up 25 points, or 0.6%, at … Read more

US gains 315,000 jobs in August. Labor market still strong but shows sign of cooling.

US gains 315,000 jobs in August.  Labor market still strong but shows sign of cooling.

The numbers: The US added a robust 315,000 new jobs in August, showing that businesses still have a big appetite for labor even as the economy slows and worries about a recession grow. The increase in hiring basically matched Wall Street estimates. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast 318,000 new jobs. The … Read more

Inflation falls for the first time in more than two years, key US gauge shows, due to sinking gas prices

Inflation falls for the first time in more than two years, key US gauge shows, due to sinking gas prices

The numbers: A key gauge of US inflation fell 0.1% in July thanks to tumbling gasoline prices, marking the first decline in more than two years and giving Americans some relief from a rapidly rising cost of living. The drop in the so-called personal-consumption price index was the first since April 2020, when the US … Read more

US consumer price inflation surprises to downside in July

US consumer price inflation surprises to downside in July

The numbers: The US consumer price index was unchanged in July, the Labor Department said Wednesday, compared with the 1.3% gain in the prior month. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated a 0.2% advance in July. The rate of inflation in the 12 months ended in July retired to 8.5% from a … Read more

JP Morgan quant who called summer rebound in stocks says rally could continue even if corporate profits decline

JP Morgan quant who called summer rebound in stocks says rally could continue even if corporate profits decline

Investors worried about the next pullback for stocks might want to pause and consider this: the decline in equity valuations since the start of the year already has exceeded the average pullback of other recessionary periods since the early 1990s, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’ s equity as to Marko Kolanovic. While more Wall … Read more

US inflation surges again and stays at 40-year high, key price gauge shows

US inflation surges again and stays at 40-year high, key price gauge shows

The numbers: A key gauge of US inflation rose a sharp 1% in June, led by higher fuel prices, in a sign that price pressures in the economy are still intense and unlikely to relent quickly. The increase in the so-called personal-consumption price index exceeded Wall Street’s forecast. Economists had predicted a 0.9% advance. A … Read more